The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task, however, is very challenging since there are time delays between extremes and their drivers, and the spatial response of such drivers is inhomogeneous. In this work, we propose a first approach and benchmarks to tackle this challenge. Our approach is trained end-to-end to predict spatio-temporally extremes and spatio-temporally drivers in the physical input variables jointly. By enforcing the network to predict extremes from spatio-temporal binary masks of identified drivers, the network successfully identifies drivers that are correlated with extremes. We evaluate our approach on three newly created synthetic benchmarks, where two of them are based on remote sensing or reanalysis climate data, and on two real-world reanalysis datasets. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/IDE.

High-resolution climate projections are essential for local decision-making. However, available climate projections have low spatial resolution (e.g. 12.5 km), which limits their usability. We address this limitation by leveraging single-image super-resolution models to statistically downscale climate projections to 1-km resolution. Since high-resolution climate projections are unavailable, we train models on a high-resolution observational gridded data set and apply them to low-resolution climate projections. We cannot evaluate downscaled climate projections with common metrics (e.g. pixel-wise root-mean-square error) because we lack ground-truth high-resolution climate projections. Therefore, we evaluate climate indicators computed at weather station locations. Experiments on daily mean temperature demonstrate that single-image super-resolution models can downscale climate projections without increasing the error of climate indicators compared to low-resolution climate projections.

Climate adaptation strategies are proposed in response to climate change. They are practised in agriculture to sustain food production. These strategies can be found in unstructured data (for example, scientific literature from the Elsevier website) or structured (heterogeneous climate data via government APIs). We present Climate Adaptation question-answering with Improved Readability and Noted Sources (CAIRNS), a framework that enables experts -- farmer advisors -- to obtain credible preliminary answers from complex evidence sources from the web. It enhances readability and citation reliability through a structured ScholarGuide prompt and achieves robust evaluation via a consistency-weighted hybrid evaluator that leverages inter-model agreement with experts. Together, these components enable readable, verifiable, and domain-grounded question-answering without fine-tuning or reinforcement learning. Using a previously reported dataset of expert-curated question-answers, we show that CAIRNS outperforms the baselines on most of the metrics. Our thorough ablation study confirms the results on all metrics. To validate our LLM-based evaluation, we also report an analysis of correlations against human judgment.

For a long time, many climate scientists and advocates held onto an optimistic belief that once the impacts of climate change became undeniable, people and governments would act. But whereas the predictions of climate models have increasingly borne out, the assumptions about human behavior have not. Even as disasters mount, climate change remains low on voters' priority lists, and policy responses remain tepid. To me, this gap reflects a deeper failure--not just in policy or communication, but in how we understand human adaptability. When I began my career as a computational cognitive scientist, I was drawn to a defining strength of human cognition--a marked ability to adapt.

Clustering high-dimensional multivariate spatiotemporal climate data is challenging due to complex temporal dependencies, evolving spatial interactions, and non-stationary dynamics. Conventional clustering methods, including recurrent and convolutional models, often struggle to capture both local and global temporal relationships while preserving spatial context. We present a time-distributed hybrid U-Net autoencoder that integrates a Bi-directional Temporal Graph Attention Transformer (B-TGAT) to guide efficient temporal clustering of multidimensional spatiotemporal climate datasets. The encoder and decoder are equipped with ConvLSTM2D modules that extract joint spatial--temporal features by modeling localized dynamics and spatial correlations over time, and skip connections that preserve multiscale spatial details during feature compression and reconstruction. At the bottleneck, B-TGAT integrates graph-based spatial modeling with attention-driven temporal encoding, enabling adaptive weighting of temporal neighbors and capturing both short and long-range dependencies across regions. This architecture produces discriminative latent embeddings optimized for clustering. Experiments on three distinct spatiotemporal climate datasets demonstrate superior cluster separability, temporal stability, and alignment with known climate transitions compared to state-of-the-art baselines. The integration of ConvLSTM2D, U-Net skip connections, and B-TGAT enhances temporal clustering performance while providing interpretable insights into complex spatiotemporal variability, advancing both methodological development and climate science applications.

Accurate precipitation forecasting is indispensable in agriculture, disaster management, and sustainable strategies. However, predicting rainfall has been challenging due to the complexity of climate systems and the heterogeneous nature of multi-source observational data, including radar, satellite imagery, and surface-level measurements. The multi-source data vary in spatial and temporal resolution, and they carry domain-specific features, making it challenging for effective integration in conventional deep learning models. Previous research has explored various machine learning techniques for weather prediction; however, most struggle with the integration of data with heterogeneous modalities. To address these limitations, we propose an Adaptive Mixture of Experts (MoE) model tailored for precipitation rate prediction. Each expert within the model specializes in a specific modality or spatio-temporal pattern. We also incorporated a dynamic router that learns to assign inputs to the most relevant experts. Our results show that this modular design enhances predictive accuracy and interpretability. In addition to the modeling framework, we introduced an interactive web-based visualization tool that enables users to intuitively explore historical weather patterns over time and space. The tool was designed to support decision-making for stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors. We evaluated our approach using a curated multimodal climate dataset capturing real-world conditions during Hurricane Ian in 2022. The benchmark results show that the Adaptive MoE significantly outperformed all the baselines.

The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task, however, is very challenging since there are time delays between extremes and their drivers, and the spatial response of such drivers is inhomogeneous. In this work, we propose a first approach and benchmarks to tackle this challenge. Our approach is trained end-to-end to predict spatio-temporally extremes and spatio-temporally drivers in the physical input variables jointly. By enforcing the network to predict extremes from spatio-temporal binary masks of identified drivers, the network successfully identifies drivers that are correlated with extremes.

Given inputs of diverse soil characteristics, and climate data gathered from various regions, we aimed to build a model to predict accurate land emissions. The problem is important since accurate quantification of the carbon cycle in agroecosystems is crucial for mitigating climate change and ensuring sustainable food production. Predicting accurate land emissions is challenging due to since calibrating heterogeneous nature of soil properties, moisture, and environmental conditions is hard at decision-relevant scales. Traditional approaches do not adequately estimate land emissions due to location-independent parameters failing to leverage the spatial heterogeneity and also require large datasets. To overcome these limitations, we proposed Spatial Distribution-Shift A ware Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning (SDSA-KGML) which leverage location-dependent parameters which accounts significant spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture from multiple sites within the same region. Experimental results demonstrate that SDSA-KGML models achieve higher local accuracy for the specified states in the Midwest Region.

Given coarser-resolution projections from global climate models or satellite data, the downscaling problem aims to estimate finer-resolution regional climate data, capturing fine-scale spatial patterns and variability. Downscaling is any method to derive high-resolution data from low-resolution variables, often to provide more detailed and local predictions and analyses. This problem is societally crucial for effective adaptation, mitigation, and resilience against significant risks from climate change. The challenge arises from spatial heterogeneity and the need to recover finer-scale features while ensuring model generalization. Most downscaling methods \cite{Li2020} fail to capture the spatial dependencies at finer scales and underperform on real-world climate datasets, such as sea-level rise. We propose a novel Kriging-informed Conditional Diffusion Probabilistic Model (Ki-CDPM) to capture spatial variability while preserving fine-scale features. Experimental results on climate data show that our proposed method is more accurate than state-of-the-art downscaling techniques.

Driven by global climate change and the ongoing energy transition, the coupling between power supply capabilities and meteorological factors has become increasingly significant. Over the long term, accurately quantifying the power generation capacity of renewable energy under the influence of climate change is essential for the development of sustainable power systems. However, due to interdisciplinary differences in data requirements, climate data often lacks the necessary hourly resolution to capture the short-term variability and uncertainties of renewable energy resources. To address this limitation, a super-resolution recurrent diffusion model (SRDM) has been developed to enhance the temporal resolution of climate data and model the short-term uncertainty. The SRDM incorporates a pre-trained decoder and a denoising network, that generates long-term, high-resolution climate data through a recurrent coupling mechanism. The high-resolution climate data is then converted into power value using the mechanism model, enabling the simulation of wind and photovoltaic (PV) power generation capacity on future long-term scales. Case studies were conducted in the Ejina region of Inner Mongolia, China, using fifth-generation reanalysis (ERA5) and coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) data under two climate pathways: SSP126 and SSP585. The results demonstrate that the SRDM outperforms existing generative models in generating super-resolution climate data. For the Ejina region, under a high-emission pathway, the annual utilization hours of wind power are projected to decrease by 2.82 hours/year, while those for PV power are projected to decrease by 0.26 hours/year. Furthermore, the research highlights the estimation biases introduced when low-resolution climate data is used for power conversion.